Intro -- Title page -- Table of Contents -- Preface to the Fourth Edition -- The Companion Website -- Acknowledgments -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TO THE FIRST EDITION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TO THE SECOND EDITION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TO THE THIRD EDITION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TO THE FOURTH EDITION -- Part I: Fundamentals of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management -- 1 The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis -- 1.1 INTRODUCTION -- 1.2 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING -- 1.3 RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT -- 1.4 CONCEPT ROAD MAP -- 1.5 EPILOGUE -- REFERENCES -- 2 The Role of Modeling in the Definition and Quantification of the Risk Function -- 2.1 INTRODUCTION -- 2.2 THE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT PROCESS: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES -- 2.3 INFORMATION, INTELLIGENCE, AND MODELS -- 2.4 THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS -- 2.5 ON THE COMPLEX DEFINITION OF RISK, VULNERABILITY, AND RESILIENCE: A SYSTEMS-BASED APPROACH -- 2.6 ON THE DEFINITION OF VULNERABILITIES IN MEASURING RISKS TO SYSTEMS -- 2.7 ON THE DEFINITION OF RESILIENCE IN MEASURING RISK TO SYSTEMS -- 2.8 ON THE COMPLEX QUANTIFICATION OF RISK TO SYSTEMS -- REFERENCES -- 3 Identifying Risk through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling and Its Derivatives -- 3.1 HIERARCHICAL ASPECTS -- 3.2 HIERARCHICAL OVERLAPPING COORDINATION -- 3.3 HHM -- 3.4 HHM AND THE THEORY OF SCENARIO STRUCTURING -- 3.5 ADAPTIVE MULTIPLAYER HHM GAME -- 3.6 WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM -- 3.7 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT -- 3.8 HHM IN A SYSTEM ACQUISITION PROJECT -- 3.9 SOFTWARE ACQUISITION -- 3.10 HARDENING THE WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE -- 3.11 RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT FOR SUPPORT OF OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR -- 3.12 AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEM -- 3.13 FOOD-POISONING SCENARIOS -- REFERENCES -- 4 Modeling and Decision Analysis -- 4.1 INTRODUCTION -- 4.2 DECISION RULES UNDER UNCERTAINTY -- 4.3 DECISION TREES -- 4.4 DECISION MATRIX.

4.5 THE FRACTILE METHOD -- 4.6 TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION -- 4.7 INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS -- 4.8 POPULATION DYNAMIC MODELS -- 4.9 PSM -- 4.10 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- REFERENCES -- 5 Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis -- 5.1 INTRODUCTION -- 5.2 EXAMPLES OF MULTIPLE ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES -- 5.3 THE SURROGATE WORTH TRADE-OFF METHOD -- 5.4 CHARACTERIZING A PROPER NONINFERIOR SOLUTION -- 5.5 THE SWT METHOD AND THE UTILITY FUNCTION APPROACH -- 5.6 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- 5.7 SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- 6 Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis -- 6.1 INTRODUCTION -- 6.2 SENSITIVITY, RESPONSIVITY, STABILITY, AND IRREVERSIBILITY -- 6.3 UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO ERRORS IN MODELING -- 6.4 CHARACTERIZATION OF MODELING ERRORS -- 6.5 UNCERTAINTY TAXONOMY -- 6.6 THE USIM -- 6.7 FORMULATION OF THE MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM -- 6.8 A ROBUST ALGORITHM OF THE USIM -- 6.9 INTEGRATION OF THE USIM WITH PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION AT THE DESIGN STAGE -- 6.10 CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 7 Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management -- 7.1 INTRODUCTION -- 7.2 PAST EFFORTS IN RISK FILTERING AND RANKING -- 7.3 RFRM: A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK -- 7.4 CASE STUDY: AN OOTW -- 7.5 SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- Part II: Advances in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management -- 8 Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of the Expected Value -- 8.1 INTRODUCTION -- 8.2 RISK OF EXTREME EVENTS -- 8.3 THE FALLACY OF THE EXPECTED VALUE -- 8.4 THE PMRM -- 8.5 GENERAL FORMULATION OF THE PMRM -- 8.6 SUMMARY OF THE PMRM -- 8.7 ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE -- 8.8 ANALYSIS OF DAM FAILURE AND EXTREME FLOOD THROUGH THE PMRM -- 8.9 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- 8.10 SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- 9 Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis -- 9.1 INTRODUCTION -- 9.2 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH -- 9.3 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SODT AND MODT -- 9.4 SUMMARY -- 9.5 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- REFERENCES -- 10 Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.

10.1 INTRODUCTION -- 10.2 IMPACT ANALYSIS -- 10.3 THE MULTIOBJECTIVE, MULTISTAGE IMPACT ANALYSIS METHOD: AN OVERVIEW -- 10.4 COMBINING THE PMRM AND THE MMIAM -- 10.5 RELATING MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION TREES TO THE MRIAM -- 10.6 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- 10.7 EPILOGUE -- REFERENCES -- 11 Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM -- 11.1 A REVIEW OF THE PARTITIONED MULTIOBJECTIVE RISK METHOD -- 11.2 STATISTICS OF EXTREMES -- 11.3 INCORPORATING THE STATISTICS OF EXTREMES INTO THE PMRM -- 11.4 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE APPROXIMATION OF f4(�) -- 11.5 GENERALIZED QUANTIFICATION OF RISK OF EXTREME EVENTS -- 11.6 SUMMARY -- 11.7 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- REFERENCES -- 12 Systems-Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling, Planning, Assessment, Management, and Communication -- 12.1 INTRODUCTION -- 12.2 THE JOURNEY: THE GUIDING PRINCIPLES IN THE BROADER CONTEXT OF THE EMERGING NEXT GENERATION DEVELOPED BY THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION -- REFERENCES -- 13 Fault Trees -- 13.1 INTRODUCTION -- 13.2 BASIC FAULT-TREE ANALYSIS -- 13.3 RELIABILITY AND FAULT-TREE ANALYSIS -- 13.4 MINIMAL CUT SETS -- 13.5 THE DARE USING FAULT TREES -- 13.6 EXTREME EVENTS IN FAULT TREE ANALYSIS -- 13.7 AN EXAMPLE PROBLEM BASED ON A CASE STUDY -- 13.8 FAILURE MODE AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS AND FAILURE MODE, EFFECTS, AND CRITICALITY ANALYSIS -- 13.9 EVENT TREES -- 13.10 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- REFERENCES -- 14 Multiobjective Statistical Method -- 14.1 INTRODUCTION -- 14.2 MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF THE INTERIOR DRAINAGE PROBLEM -- 14.3 FORMULATION OF THE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM -- 14.4 THE MSM: STEP-BY-STEP -- 14.5 THE SWT METHOD -- 14.6 MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES -- 14.7 APPLYING THE MSM -- 14.8 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- REFERENCES -- 15 Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management -- 15.1 INTRODUCTION -- 15.2 DEFINITIONS AND PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT -- 15.3 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT METHODS.

15.4 AIRCRAFT DEVELOPMENT EXAMPLE -- 15.5 QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF SOFTWARE ACQUISITION -- 15.6 CRITICAL FACTORS THAT AFFECT SOFTWARE NONTECHNICAL RISK -- 15.7 BASIS FOR VARIANCES IN COST ESTIMATION -- 15.8 DISCRETE DYNAMIC MODELING -- 15.9 SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- 16 Modeling Complex Systems of Systems with Phantom System Models -- 16.1 INTRODUCTION -- 16.2 WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM OTHER CONTRIBUTORS? -- 16.3 THE CENTRALITY OF THE STATES OF THE SYSTEM IN MODELING AND IN RISK ANALYSIS -- 16.4 THE CENTRALITY OF TIME IN MODELING MULTIDIMENSIONAL RISK, UNCERTAINTY,  AND BENEFITS -- 16.5 EXTENSION OF HHM TO PSM -- 16.6 PSM AND META-MODELING -- 16.7 PSM LABORATORY -- 16.8 SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- 17 Adaptive Two-Player Hierarchical Holographic Modeling Game for Counterterrorism Intelligence Analysis -- 17.1 INTRODUCTION -- 17.2 BAYES' THEOREM -- 17.3 MODELING THE MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS -- 17.4 ADAPTIVE TWO-PLAYER HHM GAME: TERRORIST NETWORKS VERSUS HOMELAND PROTECTION -- 17.5 THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND THE CENTRALITY OF STATE VARIABLES IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS -- 17.6 HIERARCHICAL ADAPTIVE TWO-PLAYER HHM GAME -- 17.7 COLLABORATIVE COMPUTING SUPPORT FOR ADAPTIVE TWO-PLAYER HHM GAMES -- 17.8 SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- 18 Inoperability Input-Output Model and Its Derivatives for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors -- 18.1 OVERVIEW -- 18.2 BACKGROUND: THE ORIGINAL LEONTIEF INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL -- 18.3 INOPERABILITY INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL -- 18.4 REGIMES OF RECOVERY -- 18.5 SUPPORTING DATABASES FOR IIM ANALYSIS -- 18.6 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL DATABASES FOR IIM ANALYSIS -- 18.7 RIMS II -- 18.8 DEVELOPMENT OF THE IIM AND ITS EXTENSIONS -- 18.9 THE DYNAMIC IIM -- 18.10 PRACTICAL USES OF THE IIM -- 18.11 UNCERTAINTY IIM -- 18.12 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS -- 18.13 SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- 19 Case Studies.

19.1 A RISK-BASED INPUT-OUTPUT METHODOLOGY FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF THE AUGUST 2003 NORTHEAST BLACKOUT -- 19.2 SYSTEMIC VALUATION OF STRATEGIC PREPAREDNESS THROUGH APPLYING THE IIM WITH LESSONS LEARNED FROM HURRICANE KATRINA -- 19.3 EX POST ANALYSIS USING THE IIM OF THE SEPTEMBER 11, 2001, ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES -- 19.4 RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT OF LAHAR FLOW THREAT -- 19.5 THE STATISTICS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND 6-SIGMA CAPABILITY -- 19.6 SEQUENTIAL PARETO-OPTIMAL DECISIONS MADE DURING EMERGENT COMPLEX SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS: AN APPLICATION TO THE FAA NEXTGEN -- REFERENCES -- Appendix: Optimization Techniques -- A.1 INTRODUCTION TO MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION -- A.2 BAYESIAN ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CHEMICAL CARCINOGENICITY -- A.3 THE FARMER'S DILEMMA: LINEAR MODEL AND DUALITY -- A.4 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY TABLE -- REFERENCES -- Author Index -- Subject Index -- Series page -- End User License Agreement.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2022. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.