Front Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- About the Authors -- Abbreviations -- Main Messages -- Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for global value chains -- Measures for managing a crisis and the recovery -- Main policy messages -- References -- 1 Introduction and Overview -- Experience from historical shocks -- Scope and depth of the COVID-19 shock -- Econometric evidence -- Responses of firms and governments to supply chain shocks -- Measures to maintain and enhance trade -- Emerging climate change policies -- Integration into the global economy and GVC participation remain key -- Note -- References -- 2 Lessons from Historical Shocks to GVCs -- Key messages -- Introduction -- GVCs and the impact of shocks on trade -- Impacts at the intensive and the extensive margins -- Export survival -- Network analysis -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 3 The COVID-19 Crisis and Trade Outcomes: A Review and Analysis of Major Trade Trends -- Key messages -- Introduction -- Trends in trade and GDP -- Short-term trade and GVC effects of the pandemic -- Annex 3A Empirical strategy used to assess the short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade and GVCs -- Notes -- References -- 4 Responses of Firms and Governments to Supply Chain Shocks Surrounding COVID-19 -- Key messages -- Introduction -- Traditional supply chain management and its limitations -- Issues revealed by COVID-19 -- Firm-level adaptations in 2020 -- Private sector views of the transition -- Government responses to supply chain issues during COVID-19 -- Issues with the recovery: Containers, semiconductors, and overlapping shocks -- Notes -- References -- 5 The Key to COVID-19 Recovery and Poverty Alleviation: Globalization, Not Localization -- Key messages -- Introduction -- Methodological framework and scenarios: Using data and tools to find answers.

Scenarios: COVID-19, climate change, and protectionist shocks to GVCs -- The risks of GVC reshoring -- The distributional impacts of reshoring -- Climate change mitigation policies: Reshaping the comparative advantages of countries -- Annex 5A Regional and sectoral aggregations in computable general equilibrium analysis -- Notes -- References -- 6 COVID-19 and the Reshaping of GVCs: Policy Messages for Resilient Trade-Driven Development -- Key messages -- Introduction -- Appropriate trade policy responses during a global crisis and in the recovery -- Reviewing trade policies for better management of future shocks -- Trade and development in a more uncertain world -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- Box 3.1 Vietnam's trade experience during the pandemic -- Box 3.2 Impact of the COVID-19 shock on the export performance of Cambodian firms -- Box 4.1 Global supply chain disruption in 2021: Causes, consequences, and solutions -- Box 6.1 Dos and don'ts of trade policy responses to a global crisis: The COVID-19 pandemic -- Figures -- Figure 1.1 Trade and poverty reduction in low- and middle-income countries, 1990-2017 -- Figure 1.2 Effects of COVID-19 lockdown policies on global value chains -- Figure 3.1 Volume and type of trade and GDP, 2005-20 -- Figure 3.2 Monthly year-over-year change in the value of goods and services trade, 2019-21 -- Figure 3.3 Share of borders closed, by region, May 2020-February 2021 -- Figure 3.4 Number of commercial flights, by month, 2019-21 -- Figure 3.5 Value, volume, and price of merchandise trade -- Figure 3.6 Merchandise trade of major trading countries, 2020 vs. 2019 -- Figure 3.7 Imports of China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States, January 2019-February 2021 -- Figure 3.8 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade, 2019 and 2020.

Figure 3.9 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade of low-income countries, 2019 and 2020 -- Figure 3.10 Propensity for lost and new trade flows at the extensive margin, 2019 and 2020 -- Figure 3.11 Propensity for lost imports of inputs from China and other countries, by country income level, 2019 and 2020 -- Figure B3.2.1 Average firm survival rate in Cambodia, by type and size of firm, 2016 Q1 to 2020 Q3 -- Figure 3.12 China's share of global merchandise exports, 2002-20 -- Figure 3.13 China's share of global exports, by product group, 2002-19 -- Figure 3.14 Change in the share of global exports, by country or region and sector, 2011-19 -- Figure 3.15 Shares of mirror exports to four economies (China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States), by country and product group, 2019-20 -- Figure 3.16 Change in IPI and work mobility in exporting countries, February to June 2020 -- Figure 3.17 Change in IPI and export growth in exporting countries, February to June 2020 -- Figure 3.18 Change in IPI and import growth in partner countries, February to June 2020 -- Figure 3.19 A simplified framework of bilateral trade growth -- Figure 3.20 Impact of demand, supply, and third-country COVID-19 shocks on bilateral export growth -- Figure 3.21 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports across sectors, 2020 -- Figure 3.22 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports through global value chain channels -- Figure 5.1 Computable general equilibrium modeling scenarios -- Figure 5.2 Change in real income in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario -- Figure 5.3 Real exports and real imports in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario -- Figure 5.4 Real income compared with COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030.

Figure 5.5 Distributional impacts, by region and scenario, 2010-30 -- Figure 5.6 Reduction in extreme poverty in the GVC-friendly liberalization and TF imports scenario relative to pre-COVID-19 conditions, by region -- Figure 5.7 Change in income of the bottom 40 ­percent and top 60 ­percent of the income distribution relative to the COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by scenario and region -- Figure 5.8 Wages for unskilled females relative to rest of wages, 2030, by scenario and region -- Figure 5.9 Change in CO2 emissions in 2030 relative to the pre-COVID-19 baseline: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and NDC targets, by region -- Figure 5.10 Change in exports and imports due to the implementation of NDC policies, 2030 relative to the post-COVID-19 baseline, by region -- Figure 5.11 Impacts of the CBAM on total exports by EU trading partners and carbon intensity of exports to the EU: 2030 relative to the EU Green Deal implementation scenario, by region -- Figure 5.12 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on output in the EU: 2030 relative to the scenario with NDCs, by sector -- Figure 5.13 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on EU imports, 2030 relative to scenario with NDCs, by sector -- Figure 5.14 Impacts of CBAM on Europe and Central Asia, 2030 -- Figure 5.15 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline and GVC participation rate, by country and region -- Figure 5.16 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline, by sector -- Figure 5.17 Impacts of the CBAM on GVC participation for the electronics sector, by country and region -- Maps -- Map 3.1 COVID-19-related travel restrictions, February 2021 -- Map 6.1 Implementation status of COVID-19-related export curbs in the medical sector -- Tables.

Table 3.1 Growth of exports and imports, by region and income group, 2020 vs. 2019 -- Table 3.2 Share of exiting trade flows that did not reappear by the end of the year, 2019 and 2020 -- Table 3A.1 Short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade: Regression coefficients for different samples of countries -- Table 4.1 Top concerns of Chamber of Commerce members in Europe, 2019 and 2020 -- Table 5.1 Real income, real exports, and real imports compared with a COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030 -- Table 5.2 Top-three increases in export sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of exports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region -- Table 5.3 Top-three increases in import sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of imports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region -- Table 5.4 Number of people lifted from extreme poverty and joining the global middle class, by region and scenario -- Table 5.5 Changes in output following NDC implementation, by sector and region -- Table 5.6 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on selected sectors of EU trading partners relative to the scenario with NDCs, by region -- Table 5A.1 Regional and sectoral aggressions in computable general equilibrium analysis.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2023. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.