000			03300nam a22004453i 4500
001			EBC5926889
003			MiAaPQ
005			20240503163904.0
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			240428s2019 xx o ||||0 eng d
020			_a9783030214326 _q(electronic bk.)
020			_z9783030214319
035			_a(MiAaPQ)EBC5926889
035			_a(Au-PeEL)EBL5926889
035			_a(OCoLC)1119664880
040			_aMiAaPQ _beng _erda _epn _cMiAaPQ _dMiAaPQ
050		4	_aHB139-141
082	0		_a330.0112
100	1		_aCastle, Jennifer L.
245	1	0	_aModelling Our Changing World.
250			_a1st ed.
264		1	_aCham : _bSpringer International Publishing AG, _c2019.
264		4	_c�2019.
300			_a1 online resource (142 pages)
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia
338			_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier
490	1		_aPalgrave Texts in Econometrics Series
505	0		_aIntro -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- About the Authors -- List of Figures -- 1 Introduction -- Reference -- 2 Key Concepts: A Series of Primers -- 2.1 Time Series Data -- 2.2 Stationarity and Non-stationarity -- 2.3 Structural Breaks -- 2.4 Model Selection -- References -- 3 Why Is the World Always Changing? -- 3.1 Major sources of changes -- 3.2 Incorrectly modelling non-stationarity -- References -- 4 Making Trends and Breaks Work to Our Advantage -- 4.1 Solutions to stochastic trend non-stationarity -- 4.2 Cointegration between integrated processes -- 4.3 Location Shifts -- 4.4 DSGE models -- 4.5 Handling location shifts -- 4.6 Some benefits of non-stationarity -- References -- 5 Detectives of Change: Indicator Saturation -- 5.1 Impulse-Indicator Saturation -- 5.2 Step-Indicator Saturation -- 5.3 Designing Indicator Saturation -- 5.3.1 Trend-Indicator Saturation -- 5.3.2 Multiplicative-Indicator Saturation -- 5.3.3 Designed-Break Indicator Saturation -- 5.4 Outliers and Non-linearity -- References -- 6 The Polymath: Combining Theory and Data -- 6.1 Theory Driven and Data Driven Models -- 6.2 The Drawbacks of Using Each Approach in Isolation -- 6.3 A Combined Approach -- 6.4 Applying the Combined Approach to UK Inflation Data -- References -- 7 Seeing into the Future -- 7.1 Forecasting ignoring shifts -- 7.2 Stochastic trends and forecast uncertainty -- 7.3 Location Shifts and Forecast Uncertainty -- 7.4 Differencing away our troubles -- 7.5 Recommendations -- References -- 8 Conclusions: The Ever-Changing Way Forward -- References -- Author Index -- Subject Index -- Index.
588			_aDescription based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
590			_aElectronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
655		4	_aElectronic books.
700	1		_aHendry, David F.
776	0	8	_iPrint version: _aCastle, Jennifer L. _tModelling Our Changing World _dCham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2019 _z9783030214319
797	2		_aProQuest (Firm)
830		0	_aPalgrave Texts in Econometrics Series
856	4	0	_uhttps://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/kliuc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=5926889 _zClick to View
942			_2lcc _cEBK
999			_c335915 _d335915